(Dive Travel Business News - July 10, 2012) -- This year's Atlantic Hurricane Season began June 1, 2012 and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a less active season compared to recent years.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
While the overall trend toward is toward stormier seas since 1995, three factors are expected to limit hurricane formation:
1. Strong wind shear, which should tamp down hurricane formation.
2. Cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic, where storms are often given life.
3. The potential for an El Nino in the Pacific, which tends to limit Atlantic hurricane activity. read more »