Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Predictions 2010

(Dive Travel Business News - June 7, 2010) -- NOAA's 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 75% chance of a below-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of an above normal season. See NOAA definitions of above, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140^oW north of the equator. This outlook is based on the analysis and prediction of two main climate signals:

• The ongoing conditions that have been suppressing eastern Pacific hurricane seasons since 1995;
• Either ENSO-neutral (meaning no El Niño or La Niña) or La Niña conditions during the peak months (July-September) of the season, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely.

Climate patterns similar to those expected this year have historically produced a wide range of activity. Allowing for uncertainties, we estimate a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

• 9-15 named storms,
• 4-8 hurricanes,
• 1-3 major hurricanes

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

The long-term (1971-2005) averages for the eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

This is in contrast to the Atlantic Hurricane Season which forecasters say could be extremely active -- but that's to be expected. Historically, when the Atlantic experiences above-normal seasonal activity, the Pacific tends to experience below-normal seasonal activity and vice versa.

The Eastern Pacific season runs through November 30, although it starts earlier -- May 15 rather than June 1. Meanwhile, the Central Pacific is also on hurricane alert (June 1 through November 30); NOAA expects the region will see two to three tropical cyclones this year. Though hurricanes rarely hit Hawaii, it has happened. Visit NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for more information.

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